GT Writeup

Oh well, we’ve had two weeks to process the defeat in Auburn, so now it’s time to try and salvage the season somewhat, beating our biggest rival, getting bowl eligible and sending the seniors off in style.  And some folks say we have nothing to play for?  We’ve got plenty to play for.
GT offense:
Overall – With the loss of Jonathan Dwyer at B-back and BayBay Thomas at WR, folks expected the GT offense to see a dip in production but the return of Nesbitt at QB was supposed to keep Johnson’s machine rolling coming off a BCS appearance.  It’s been a mixed bag.  They still run the ball as well as anyone in the country (actually better, 1st in the NCAA in rushing) but their 86 ypg passing only manages to surpass 1 FBS team (Army).  They’re a run-first team and with Nesbitt’s injury that hasn’t changed all that much.  It’s going to take nice, fundamental football to stop this group.  It’s happened more this year than it did last year, so there’s hope.
QB – With the loss of Nesbitt to injury until the bowl game, GT turned to 6’, 205 pound sophomore Tevin Washington.  The results have been a mixed bag.  While he’s shown a more accurate arm than Nesbitt at times, the stats show neither were particularly good this year, with both in the 37% completion range.  Not good.  QB for GT isn’t about passing a whole lot though as they average barely 13 attempts per game.  While Washington isn’t quite the bull that Nesbitt was, he did manage over 120 yards against Miami 2 weeks ago.  He’s quicker than Nesbitt but isn’t as scary in those short yardage keepers where Nesbitt never seemed to get stopped.
RB – Dwyer’s gone and I honestly thought Anthony Allen would step in and be just as good.  While he’s been very good (averaging over 5.5 ypc), he hasn’t been nearly the game breaker that Dwyer was.   He’s the first option we’ve got to stop though, as that FB dive play is the core of a lot of what they do.  If we can’t stop that, we’re in for a long night.   Rounding out the ground game is a bevy of options.  Orwin Smith is averaging almost 11 ypc.  Roddy Jones had the game of his life in Athens 2 years ago.  Embry Peeples is
dangerous in space.  Lucas Cox is a bruising back but isn’t near the speed threat of Allen.
WR –  When you don’t average 90 yards passing per game, your WRs aren’t doing a whole lot.   Stephen Hill is the biggest threat.  He’s got good height and great speed but in his 2nd year in the system, lacks the brute strength that made BayBay Thomas so successful last year.  He can stretch the field but he’s struggled to make the big grabs that Thomas did last year to keep the safeties peeled back.  Hill only has 13 catches on the season though and is the only player with double digit receptions on the year.  He’s also the only WR with more than 6 catches on the year.  The RBs do figure into the passing game some.
OL –  Any time you lead the nation in rushing your OL is doing something right, but this year’s jacket OL hasn’t been the force they were last year.  They’re a smaller OL than we’re used to facing and they’ll do a lot of diving at our ankles as is their MO, but this group isn’t about size and strength, rather about quickness and positioning.  They’re young at the guard spots.
Overall – The GT offense is such an oddity.  They have such a different approach to everything than anyone we’ve faced, I think the off week came at the right time.  Of course, the last time we lost to them (Athens ‘08) we had an off week to get ready as well.  The key to stopping this attack is to play disciplined first.  Next we need strong play from our DL, particularly at the NG spot where Tyson will be charged with stopping the dive.  He doesn’t necessarily have to penetrate, just take up space and clog holes, more the traditional 3-4 NG role.  We’ll need good safety play as well.  Ogletree has struggled some in coverage but has been excellent against the run so I’m thinking he could be a key.  Rambo will need to up his play though.  Our CBs will be on islands all day in man coverage and charged with keeping their eyes in the backfield as well so despite the fact GT won’t throw much, those guys will have as tough a challenge as they’ve had all year.
Matchup –  The key for me will be the play of DeAngelo Tyson at NG.  If he can plug the middle and take away that option, it limits what GT can do.  I expect Akeem Dent to have a big game and Christian Robinson’s lack of size shouldn’t hurt as much this week.
GT D
Overall –  Like us, GT made the switch to the 3-4 this year under former Jets and UVA coach Al Groh.  Like us also, it’s been somewhat of a mixed bag in terms of success.  They haven’t held a BCS opponent below 20 all year but only two scored more than 28 (45 to NCSt and 35 to Miami).  They’ve struggled against the run (81st in rush D) more so than the pass (41st in pass D), but they’ve really struggled in sacks (94th at less than 1.5 per game) and tackles for loss (95th).
DL –  The GT DL hasn’t played all that well this year.  While the 3-4 doesn’t call for huge numbers from your NG, you’d still expect more than 0.5 TFLs and 0 sacks from your top 2 NGs.  Starting NG Logan Walls hasn’t gotten much penetration at all.  At DE, the story is a little better where Sophomore Izaan Cross has managed 6.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks to lead the DL.  His opposite number, Jason Peters, has played decently also.  Both have good size as you’d expect playing DE in the 3-4.
LB – Taking the OLB spots are Steven Sylvester and Anthony Egbuniwe.  Sylvester is having a solid year, but isn‘t the explosive 3-4 OLB like Houston.  As you see with many of the NFL 3-4 teams, the ILBs racks up stats.  For the Jackets, that means Brad Jefferson (1st in tackles) and Julian Burnett (2nd in tackles).  Jefferson is particularly active, leading the team in sacks.
DB – The GT secondary has some serious experience, starting 3 seniors and a junior.  The best player back there is probably CB Dominique Reese, who has managed to be 4th on the team in tackles, 2nd on the TFLs, and first on the team in pass breakups.  Their 2-deep at CB lists 3 guys at 6-0 or better and one at 5-11, but the seem to play smaller than that.  It will be interesting to see who they match up with AJ as they haven’t faced too many top notch WRs this year.
Overall Defense – UGA has had a rough year this year but since the return of AJ Green, offensive production hasn’t been one of them.  UGA ranks 26th in points scored nationally.  GT has only faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 nationally in points scored.  How’d they fare against those 3 (VT at 23rd, NCSt at 28th and Miami at 56th)?  They managed to hold VT to 7 points below their average but gave up 10 points over their average to the other two.  Their best effort on the year was probably in holding VT to 28 points.  Hardly something to get super excited about.  We’ve had a ton of success throwing the ball lately and Murray has played well but we beat GT last year by running the ball and they certainly look more vulnerable to the run so don’t be surprised to see us try to “run this state” II.
Matchup to watch – We haven’t faced too many 3-4 teams other than in practice so I’m curious to see how well we protect Murray.  Sylvester has good size and speed off the edge and could be trouble.  GT hasn’t had much success with sacks this year and we’ve done a pretty good job protecting him but something tells me GT sells out and brings the house a lot this week.
Overall Thoughts -
As much as UGA has struggled this year, this game still means so much.  Last game for the seniors (and some juniors) to play between the hedges.  A win makes us bowl eligible.  The season has been a train wreck for the most part.  We didn’t meet basically any of the goals coming into the season.  Oh well, it’s Georgia Tech.  That’s about all you should have to say to get the team motivated.  That and then stand the seniors up and let the team know that this is their last shot to beat Tech.  Then maybe play the tape of them tearing up the hedges the last time we played the game in Athens.  That should do it.  If our guys can’t get up for that then we need new guys.
I do worry a bit about Murray.  He’s never played in really cold weather and with a 8 PM kickoff and a low that night of around 32, I expect this one to be a pretty chilly affair.  With is being relatively mild all week he’s not exactly getting a chance to get acclimated either.  Hopefully he won’t be plagued by the early game jitters we’ve seen a few times this year.
Positional Notes:
- Expect a big game from Kris Durham.  That guy just comes up big when we need him and in his last game in Sanford I think he’ll make us remember him in a good way.
- Jakar Hamilton’s move to CB makes sense with the depth chart we have.  If he’s got the speed to handle the position I really like having him there next year, especially if Boykin leaves early (doubtful).
Random Thoughts
- Alright, so Newton was as good as we thought…I really don’t want to get back into that game too much as it just gets me in a bad mood.  I have no issues with losing to Auburn, we had beaten them 4 straight, they are having their best season in years and we’re having our worst.  A win would’ve been an upset.  A big one.  What upset me about that game wasn’t just the dirty play of one Nick Fairley, it was the way many Auburn fans have defended and embraced it.  Clean hits on the QB in the course of play are fine, it’s part of the game.  What Fairley did?  Not so much….  Roll Tide.  I never thought I’d say that, but Fairley cemented it for me.
- So Ben Hardin and Charles White will be walking with the seniors with a year of eligibility left.  It’s nice that that clears up 2 more scholarships for guys in the upcoming class.  What I love about it though is that both guys will graduate prior to us parting ways.  It’s like the anti-Saban move.  Neither guy contributed a whole lot that we could see in terms of tangible results on the field but Richt made a commitment and rather than ushering them out the door a year or two ago when it became obvious they weren’t going to be big contributors, he kept his end of the scholarship bargain and maintained his reputation as a class act.
- I’m thinking if we make any coaching changes it’ll happen quickly, as in prior to signing day which is in early February.  I’m not saying I necessarily expect any but it’s possible we lose an offensive coach or two I guess.  I don’t see any defensive staff changes.  I could certainly see some additions in the strength and conditioning realm coming.
- So Boise State plays like the 90th toughest schedule in the country and they are still poised to make the big dance should Auburn stumble?  How exactly is that fair?  Kudos to them for trying to beef up their 2011 schedule but I’m wondering if their coach doesn’t hop to a better job if they do somehow manage to play for it all.
- Don’t look now but UGA is 3-0 in bball with wins over a couple of decent teams in Colorado and St. Louis.  All that with our best player, Trey Thompkins, not having played a minute recovering from an ankle injury.  Mark Fox is looking like a brilliant hire.
- Speaking of basketball, is anyone else really enjoying the karma dump going on right now with the Miami Heat?  I’m loving the fact that LeBron took his talents to South Beach to be 2nd fiddle and never really thought about the fact that his salary alongside Wade and Bosh wouldn’t allow for the addition of any of those role players that make the Celtics and Lakers so tough.  I know Cleveland has to be eating this up.
As always,
have a safe weekend.
Jody

Oh well, we’ve had two weeks to process the defeat in Auburn, so now it’s time to try and salvage the season somewhat, beating our biggest rival, getting bowl eligible and sending the seniors off in style.  And some folks say we have nothing to play for?  We’ve got plenty to play for.

GT offense:

Overall – With the loss of Jonathan Dwyer at B-back and BayBay Thomas at WR, folks expected the GT offense to see a dip in production but the return of Nesbitt at QB was supposed to keep Johnson’s machine rolling coming off a BCS appearance.  It’s been a mixed bag.  They still run the ball as well as anyone in the country (actually better, 1st in the NCAA in rushing) but their 86 ypg passing only manages to surpass 1 FBS team (Army).  They’re a run-first team and with Nesbitt’s injury that hasn’t changed all that much.  It’s going to take nice, fundamental football to stop this group.  It’s happened more this year than it did last year, so there’s hope.

QB – With the loss of Nesbitt to injury until the bowl game, GT turned to 6’, 205 pound sophomore Tevin Washington.  The results have been a mixed bag.  While he’s shown a more accurate arm than Nesbitt at times, the stats show neither were particularly good this year, with both in the 37% completion range.  Not good.  QB for GT isn’t about passing a whole lot though as they average barely 13 attempts per game.  While Washington isn’t quite the bull that Nesbitt was, he did manage over 120 yards against Miami 2 weeks ago.  He’s quicker than Nesbitt but isn’t as scary in those short yardage keepers where Nesbitt never seemed to get stopped.

RB – Dwyer’s gone and I honestly thought Anthony Allen would step in and be just as good.  While he’s been very good (averaging over 5.5 ypc), he hasn’t been nearly the game breaker that Dwyer was.   He’s the first option we’ve got to stop though, as that FB dive play is the core of a lot of what they do.  If we can’t stop that, we’re in for a long night.   Rounding out the ground game is a bevy of options.  Orwin Smith is averaging almost 11 ypc.  Roddy Jones had the game of his life in Athens 2 years ago.  Embry Peeples is dangerous in space.  Lucas Cox is a bruising back but isn’t near the speed threat of Allen.

WR –  When you don’t average 90 yards passing per game, your WRs aren’t doing a whole lot.   Stephen Hill is the biggest threat.  He’s got good height and great speed but in his 2nd year in the system, lacks the brute strength that made BayBay Thomas so successful last year.  He can stretch the field but he’s struggled to make the big grabs that Thomas did last year to keep the safeties peeled back.  Hill only has 13 catches on the season though and is the only player with double digit receptions on the year.  He’s also the only WR with more than 6 catches on the year.  The RBs do figure into the passing game some.

OL –  Any time you lead the nation in rushing your OL is doing something right, but this year’s jacket OL hasn’t been the force they were last year.  They’re a smaller OL than we’re used to facing and they’ll do a lot of diving at our ankles as is their MO, but this group isn’t about size and strength, rather about quickness and positioning.  They’re young at the guard spots.

Overall – The GT offense is such an oddity.  They have such a different approach to everything than anyone we’ve faced, I think the off week came at the right time.  Of course, the last time we lost to them (Athens ‘08) we had an off week to get ready as well.  The key to stopping this attack is to play disciplined first.  Next we need strong play from our DL, particularly at the NG spot where Tyson will be charged with stopping the dive.  He doesn’t necessarily have to penetrate, just take up space and clog holes, more the traditional 3-4 NG role.  We’ll need good safety play as well.  Ogletree has struggled some in coverage but has been excellent against the run so I’m thinking he could be a key.  Rambo will need to up his play though.  Our CBs will be on islands all day in man coverage and charged with keeping their eyes in the backfield as well so despite the fact GT won’t throw much, those guys will have as tough a challenge as they’ve had all year.

Matchup –  The key for me will be the play of DeAngelo Tyson at NG.  If he can plug the middle and take away that option, it limits what GT can do.  I expect Akeem Dent to have a big game and Christian Robinson’s lack of size shouldn’t hurt as much this week.

GT D

Overall –  Like us, GT made the switch to the 3-4 this year under former Jets and UVA coach Al Groh.  Like us also, it’s been somewhat of a mixed bag in terms of success.  They haven’t held a BCS opponent below 20 all year but only two scored more than 28 (45 to NCSt and 35 to Miami).  They’ve struggled against the run (81st in rush D) more so than the pass (41st in pass D), but they’ve really struggled in sacks (94th at less than 1.5 per game) and tackles for loss (95th).

DL –  The GT DL hasn’t played all that well this year.  While the 3-4 doesn’t call for huge numbers from your NG, you’d still expect more than 0.5 TFLs and 0 sacks from your top 2 NGs.  Starting NG Logan Walls hasn’t gotten much penetration at all.  At DE, the story is a little better where Sophomore Izaan Cross has managed 6.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks to lead the DL.  His opposite number, Jason Peters, has played decently also.  Both have good size as you’d expect playing DE in the 3-4.

LB – Taking the OLB spots are Steven Sylvester and Anthony Egbuniwe.  Sylvester is having a solid year, but isn‘t the explosive 3-4 OLB like Houston.  As you see with many of the NFL 3-4 teams, the ILBs racks up stats.  For the Jackets, that means Brad Jefferson (1st in tackles) and Julian Burnett (2nd in tackles).  Jefferson is particularly active, leading the team in sacks.

DB – The GT secondary has some serious experience, starting 3 seniors and a junior.  The best player back there is probably CB Dominique Reese, who has managed to be 4th on the team in tackles, 2nd on the TFLs, and first on the team in pass breakups.  Their 2-deep at CB lists 3 guys at 6-0 or better and one at 5-11, but the seem to play smaller than that.  It will be interesting to see who they match up with AJ as they haven’t faced too many top notch WRs this year.

Overall Defense – UGA has had a rough year this year but since the return of AJ Green, offensive production hasn’t been one of them.  UGA ranks 26th in points scored nationally.  GT has only faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 nationally in points scored.  How’d they fare against those 3 (VT at 23rd, NCSt at 28th and Miami at 56th)?  They managed to hold VT to 7 points below their average but gave up 10 points over their average to the other two.  Their best effort on the year was probably in holding VT to 28 points.  Hardly something to get super excited about.  We’ve had a ton of success throwing the ball lately and Murray has played well but we beat GT last year by running the ball and they certainly look more vulnerable to the run so don’t be surprised to see us try to “run this state” II.

Matchup to watch – We haven’t faced too many 3-4 teams other than in practice so I’m curious to see how well we protect Murray.  Sylvester has good size and speed off the edge and could be trouble.  GT hasn’t had much success with sacks this year and we’ve done a pretty good job protecting him but something tells me GT sells out and brings the house a lot this week.

Overall Thoughts -

As much as UGA has struggled this year, this game still means so much.  Last game for the seniors (and some juniors) to play between the hedges.  A win makes us bowl eligible.  The season has been a train wreck for the most part.  We didn’t meet basically any of the goals coming into the season.  Oh well, it’s Georgia Tech.  That’s about all you should have to say to get the team motivated.  That and then stand the seniors up and let the team know that this is their last shot to beat Tech.  Then maybe play the tape of them tearing up the hedges the last time we played the game in Athens.  That should do it.  If our guys can’t get up for that then we need new guys.

I do worry a bit about Murray.  He’s never played in really cold weather and with a 8 PM kickoff and a low that night of around 32, I expect this one to be a pretty chilly affair.  With is being relatively mild all week he’s not exactly getting a chance to get acclimated either.  Hopefully he won’t be plagued by the early game jitters we’ve seen a few times this year.

Positional Notes:

- Expect a big game from Kris Durham.  That guy just comes up big when we need him and in his last game in Sanford I think he’ll make us remember him in a good way.

- Jakar Hamilton’s move to CB makes sense with the depth chart we have.  If he’s got the speed to handle the position I really like having him there next year, especially if Boykin leaves early (doubtful).

Random Thoughts

- Alright, so Newton was as good as we thought…I really don’t want to get back into that game too much as it just gets me in a bad mood.  I have no issues with losing to Auburn, we had beaten them 4 straight, they are having their best season in years and we’re having our worst.  A win would’ve been an upset.  A big one.  What upset me about that game wasn’t just the dirty play of one Nick Fairley, it was the way many Auburn fans have defended and embraced it.  Clean hits on the QB in the course of play are fine, it’s part of the game.  What Fairley did?  Not so much….  Roll Tide.  I never thought I’d say that, but Fairley cemented it for me.

- So Ben Hardin and Charles White will be walking with the seniors with a year of eligibility left.  It’s nice that that clears up 2 more scholarships for guys in the upcoming class.  What I love about it though is that both guys will graduate prior to us parting ways.  It’s like the anti-Saban move.  Neither guy contributed a whole lot that we could see in terms of tangible results on the field but Richt made a commitment and rather than ushering them out the door a year or two ago when it became obvious they weren’t going to be big contributors, he kept his end of the scholarship bargain and maintained his reputation as a class act.

- I’m thinking if we make any coaching changes it’ll happen quickly, as in prior to signing day which is in early February.  I’m not saying I necessarily expect any but it’s possible we lose an offensive coach or two I guess.  I don’t see any defensive staff changes.  I could certainly see some additions in the strength and conditioning realm coming.

- So Boise State plays like the 90th toughest schedule in the country and they are still poised to make the big dance should Auburn stumble?  How exactly is that fair?  Kudos to them for trying to beef up their 2011 schedule but I’m wondering if their coach doesn’t hop to a better job if they do somehow manage to play for it all.

- Don’t look now but UGA is 3-0 in bball with wins over a couple of decent teams in Colorado and St. Louis.  All that with our best player, Trey Thompkins, not having played a minute recovering from an ankle injury.  Mark Fox is looking like a brilliant hire.

- Speaking of basketball, is anyone else really enjoying the karma dump going on right now with the Miami Heat?  I’m loving the fact that LeBron took his talents to South Beach to be 2nd fiddle and never really thought about the fact that his salary alongside Wade and Bosh wouldn’t allow for the addition of any of those role players that make the Celtics and Lakers so tough.  I know Cleveland has to be eating this up.

As always,

have a safe weekend.

Jody

Posted under 2008 Season by jody on Tuesday 23 November 2010 at 10:17 pm

Auburn Writeup

Alright, despite the loss to UF under this new formatting, I’m going to have to go ahead with it until I figure out how to get the standard formatting back on my template.  Anyway, yes, I took a week off from the writeups because I figured no one really cared about Idaho State and I was right.  Now, on to the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn offense:
Overall – On paper, we don’t stand a chance.  They’ve only been held to less than 35 points 3 times this year, against Clemson (27), LSU (24) and MSU (17).  That MSU game was the 2nd one of the season though and they were still getting their feet wet, basically the same thing with Clemson.  The only real weakness they have might not be a weakness at all really, as they simply haven’t had to pass the ball a whole lot.  Their ground game has been good enough that they just keep doing that enough and throw an occasional pass.  They’re 10-0 so obviously they’ve figured something out.  They’ve got the best offense we’ve faced all year.  4th nationally in rushing offense and 6th in total offense?  Super.  Pair that with the 6th ranked scoring offense (42+ ppg) and you’ve got a prolific scoring and possession offense.  Double super.
QB – As much hype as Newton has received this year, it’s all deserved.  He’s completing 67% of his passes and thrown 19 TDs to only 5 INTs (although only 7 of his TDs have been in SEC play).  Those numbers alone would qualify as a great year, but that’s just the start with this guy, as he also leads the team in rushing with over 1,100 yards and a sparkly little 6.5 ypc avg.  Add in the 15 rushing TDs and you see why the guy is the legitimate #1 contender for the Heisman.  Debate the off-field issues all you want, on the field, this guy is flat scary.  At 6-6, 250 he can move like a WR (oh yeah, he’s also caught a TD) and is tough enough to sustain 25 carries against SC and another 28 against LSU, two pretty physical defenses, without missing a beat.  Given our issues with mobile QBs and the fact that no one has come close to slowing him down, I’m not excited about facing him Saturday.
RB – As if dealing with Newton wasn’t enough on the ground, Auburn sports a bevy of options in the backfield.  Marcus Lattimore gets a lot of publicity as a talented freshman SEC RB but I think Auburn’s Michael Dyer is better.  He’s more explosive.  He’s strong, fast, and built like a tank already.  His 6.4 ypc avg seems gaudy until you realize it’s the lowest of Auburn’s top 4 ball carriers (all of whom will get touches Saturday).  While Dyer is the phenom, Onterio McCalebb is just pure speed and quicks.  If he gets a hole, he’s gone.  Ask LSU.  On the season he’s averaging 9.3 ypc.  Most folks would be clamoring for him to have more touches but when they take the ball away from Dyer and Newton it just makes no sense.  Add in the veteran Mario Fannin and you have a loaded backfield.  Fannin is a pass catching threat but McCalebb only has 2 catches on the year and Dyer 1.
WR – Early on this season, Auburn’s passing attack was essentially just Darvin Adams, but as well as he was playing, it made sense.  The Jr from Kennesaw has had an incredible year although it’s a step back statistically from last season’s 10 TD effort.  That’s largely just a result of the efficiency of Auburn’s ground game.  Adams is a threat down the field and makes clutch plays.  Sr. Terrell Zachary has come on as of late and added another option to the mix.
OL – As if the rest of the stuff I’ve talked about on their offense wasn’t enough, they start 4 seniors and a junior on the OL.  Coming into the season, the 2 OLs with the most starting experience in the SEC were Auburn and us.  Auburn’s OL has played like they’re experienced.  OUrs, not so much.  LT Lee Ziemba has started since his freshman year and is a massive, prototype LT.  Ryan Pugh is a smart, experienced center.  Not a lot to get excited about here (for us anyway).
Overall – Auburn will score points.  I feel comfortable saying that as long as Newton plays.  It’s a tough unit to figure out though.  Clemson had some success slowing them by dominating along the line of scrimmage but Clemson has one of the best DLs in college football.  Mississippi State just uglied them to near death (which they actually pulled off against us).  LSU gave them fits because LSU has a really good defense.  The one that’s interesting to look at is Kentucky.  Up 31-17 at the half, Auburn struggled offensively (and defensively) out of the gates in the 2nd half, starting with an INT and 2 3 and outs, allowing UK back in it before they went straight up grind-mode and gave the ball to Newton for 2 4th quarter FGs, each of which gave AU the lead with the final one coming on the last play of the game.  I imagine we’ll be watching that tape closely to establish our gameplan.  For a run-based offense, they spread the field a lot in the base set, making it harder to load the box, but I think we’ll put 8 in there often, bringing a safety down, trying to force Newton to throw.  He’s by no means a bad passer, in fact, he’s very good, he’s just so lethal running the ball (as is the rest of their backfield) that I think we’d rather roll the dice with him throwing it than controlling the game on the ground.
Matchup – Akeem Dent is having an excellent senior season and it’ll be interesting watching him chase Newton all over the field.  If we’re going to win, he’s going to need a lot of tackles, but I think the key to the game is going to be the play of our secondary.  Can our CBs play good coverage without a lot of help?  Can our safeties come up and make the big plays that it seems like they’ve missed on more than one occasion this year?
Auburn D
Overall –  The Auburn defense has a ton of talent and frankly should be much better than their stats indicate but honestly, they haven’t had to be the dominant Auburn defenses you’ve come to expect.  The great Auburn teams of the past always seemed to be characterized by ferocious defenses.  This one, while inconsistent, might be as much about complacency as anything.  They know their offense is going to put up 40 or so, so they can afford to give up some plays.  Ted Roof is known for that.  Ask a GT fan about it.  THe honest ones (or football literate ones) will  roll their eyes at the mention of his name.  Stout against the run (18th nationally and 3rd in the SEC) but struggling against the pass (95th nationally and 11th in the SEC), this defense is tough to figure.
DL – You could make a strong argument that the best defensive player in the SEC this season is Auburn DT Nick Fairley.  At 6-5, 300, he’s got ideal size and he’s really figured out how to use it this season, racking up a whopping 18 TFLs (to lead the team by 11) including 7.5 sacks (leading the team by 4).  Just for fun, add in a team-leading 15 QB hurries and you can see why this guy has shot up the draft charts of NFL scouts and is now projected as a top 15 pick.  Fellow DT Zach Clayton doesn’t get near the pub mainly because he doesn’t put up near the stats, but he’s a very effective interior guy, especially with Fairley commanding double teams.  Antoine Carter is the best option at DE but only has 3.5 sacks on the year.
LB –  Sr. MLB Josh Bynes is leading the team in tackles and putting together a nice season.  He’s managed to snag 3 INTs on the season and I think they all came off of Arkansas’ backup in the span of about 30 seconds of the 4th quarter, turning a close game into a complete debacle.  Flanked by fellow senior Craig Stevens, Auburn has gotten good LB play, particularly in run support.
DB – Despite some considerable talent back there, the Auburn secondary has really struggled against the pass.  As mentioned before, they currently rank 95th nationally and 11th in the SEC giving up over 240 ypg.  CB Neiko Thorpe is talented with good size but too often seems to give up big plays. S Zac Etheridge is a good story coming off a scary injury last year to reclaim his starting spot and nearly leads the team in tackles.
Overall Defense –  Look at the stats, Auburn appears to be very good against the run and not so good against the pass.  I think that’s a bit misleading.  With an offense as stout as they have, they’ve been up on folks a pretty good bit, forcing those teams to abandon the run a bit just because.  Teams down by 3 TDs don’t make it a habit of running the ball a lot, so I think those stats are distorted a bit.  On the flip side, they did completely shut down Lattimore and Arkansas’ backup QB  threw for more than 330 yards in 2.5 quarters, so maybe they really are that good and that bad.  Whatever the case, I think our best chance to win revolves around AJ Green and the other passing weapons we have.  Orson Charles certainly seems to have found his groove and will present matchup problems for their LBs.  We’re going to have to run at some point though and that means dealing with Fairley.
Matchup to watch – Man it’s really hard to say. Auburn plays a lot of zone coverages so you can’t really watch AJ versus any one DB or Orson versus a LB, so I’d say watching Fairley vs. our interior is going to be key.  If they get pressure without having  to blitz, we’ll have trouble all day getting anything going.
Overall Thoughts -
On paper, we don’t stand a chance.  Did I mention that earlier?  The offense they put on the field is loaded producing like few we’ve seen in the SEC.  We’re a .500 football team that lost to a team that fired its coach.  In fact, we lost to a Colorado team that has more SEC wins (1) on the season than Big XII wins (0).
Unfortunately for Auburn though, this massive game where they could clinch their first SEC division title since 2004 comes amidst a swarm of controversy.  Newton has been battered from every side this week and if anyone tells you they know how he’ll react, they’re trying to convince themselves as much as you.  Last weekend he played well while the rumors were starting to swirl but he was playing a completely outmatched opponent.  As much as UGA has struggled this year, they are still a dangerous football team, especially if their opponent is a bit distracted.
Fortunately for Auburn they have the fact that they can knock off UGA and clinch the West.  That should certainly be enough to keep the team focused.  If that’s not enough, the coaching staff can simply remind them that they’ve lost 4 in a row to UGA, meaning, unless there’s a 6th year medical redshirt on the team, no one on Auburn’s team has experienced a win over UGA (outside of Newton who was technically on the 2008 UF team that destroyed UGA, he was redshirting though).  Given the considerable number of Georgia natives that annually comprise the Auburn depth chart, that’s not an insignificant fact.
One last thing, Murray has started off incredibly slow the last two weeks.  I don’t know if it’s nerves, cold or what, but this week we cant afford a similar start to last week as Auburn could be up 3 scores early if we don’t protect the ball.  Up until the UF game, Murray had largely played like a veteran.  He’s shown some rookie mistakes lately but has impressively rallied to put the team in a position to win (UF) or outright dominate (ISU).  Come to think of it, it’s about time Newton played like a kid without much college experience.  Auburn fans would take a shaky performance this week if it means they get his A-game against Bama.  I would too.
Positional Notes:
-Kris Durham returns to provide more depth and stretch-the-field-ability.  After watching him go after the ball against UF I realized how much we’re going to miss him next year.
-Alec Ogletree’s development has apparently landed him as a starter.  Richt seemed very pleased with the results of the freshman after the Idaho State game.  He seems to be very instinctive and doesn’t miss a tackle when he gets a shot.  Two solid features from your safety.
-I mentioned Dent earlier but we’ll need big days from both MLBs, be it Robinson or Dowtin opposite Dent, in order to slow this Auburn ground game.  That mesh read play scares the mess out of me and when the other guys getting the ball are as talented as their RBs are, your LBs better come ready to play.
Random Thoughts
-Umm, you ever hear the phrase, where there’s smoke there’s fire?  Well, somebody apparently set off a few smoke bombs in Auburn this past weekend.  My guess is that someone is Nick Saban.  According to the stuff I’ve read, the SEC office knew about the MSU allegations in January and have been “investigating” since then.  I wouldn’t be shocked (and I know Auburn fans pretty much expect it) to find that Saban somehow got wind of it through improper channels and ordered the code red.  Of course he wasn’t expecting to wet the bed against SC and LSU to spoil his chance at another division title, but he can’t really sit back and let Auburn grab momentum in HIS state, can he?
-Yeah, I know, UGA is 5-5.  Look around though.  Texas is sub-.500.  Tennessee is a disaster of epic proportions.  FSU is a mediocre 6-3 and perennial powers (at least at one point) Notre Dame and Michigan are shadows of their former selves.  I guess that’s why we’re seriously looking at the chance of Boise State and TCU playing for the title.
-Oregon is really good, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them stumble against Oregon State.
-The hypocrisy of ESPN discussing LSU for a shot at the title despite possibly not winning their division is disgusting.  They wouldn’t even remotely consider UGA under that same scenario in 2007.  Les freakin’ Miles.  I’m still shocked that with all the chaos, Ohio State hasn’t somehow re-emerged as a title contender.
-OK, TV.  Boardwalk Empire is still really good.  Community is having a serious sophomore slump after being really good last year.  I miss Parks & Recreation.  The Office is not close to what it used to be.  I’m kinda in a TV funk right now.  I blame the UGA football season.
-So basketball season is upon us.  I’m fired up about this season and it’s not just because our football season went in the tank.  We have a legit shot at being very good.  Lots of talent on the team and we’re so much more watchable than we were under the previous regime it’s not even comparable.
As always,
have a safe weekend.
Jody

Alright, despite the loss to UF under this new formatting, I’m going to have to go ahead with it until I figure out how to get the standard formatting back on my template.  Anyway, yes, I took a week off from the writeups because I figured no one really cared about Idaho State and I was right.  Now, on to the Auburn Tigers.

Also, please note that this was done assuming Newton will play.  I have every confidence in the NCAA that even if he is ultimately ruled ineligible, they’ll figure out a way to let him play this weekend and make him sit against Bama.

Auburn offense:

Overall – On paper, we don’t stand a chance.  They’ve only been held to less than 35 points 3 times this year, against Clemson (27), LSU (24) and MSU (17).  That MSU game was the 2nd one of the season though and they were still getting their feet wet, basically the same thing with Clemson.  The only real weakness they have might not be a weakness at all really, as they simply haven’t had to pass the ball a whole lot.  Their ground game has been good enough that they just keep doing that enough and throw an occasional pass.  They’re 10-0 so obviously they’ve figured something out.  They’ve got the best offense we’ve faced all year.  4th nationally in rushing offense and 6th in total offense?  Super.  Pair that with the 6th ranked scoring offense (42+ ppg) and you’ve got a prolific scoring and possession offense.  Double super.

QB – As much hype as Newton has received this year, it’s all deserved.  He’s completing 67% of his passes and thrown 19 TDs to only 5 INTs (although only 7 of his TDs have been in SEC play).  Those numbers alone would qualify as a great year, but that’s just the start with this guy, as he also leads the team in rushing with over 1,100 yards and a sparkly little 6.5 ypc avg.  Add in the 15 rushing TDs and you see why the guy is the legitimate #1 contender for the Heisman.  Debate the off-field issues all you want, on the field, this guy is flat scary.  At 6-6, 250 he can move like a WR (oh yeah, he’s also caught a TD) and is tough enough to sustain 25 carries against SC and another 28 against LSU, two pretty physical defenses, without missing a beat.  Given our issues with mobile QBs and the fact that no one has come close to slowing him down, I’m not excited about facing him Saturday.

RB – As if dealing with Newton wasn’t enough on the ground, Auburn sports a bevy of options in the backfield.  Marcus Lattimore gets a lot of publicity as a talented freshman SEC RB but I think Auburn’s Michael Dyer is better.  He’s more explosive.  He’s strong, fast, and built like a tank already.  His 6.4 ypc avg seems gaudy until you realize it’s the lowest of Auburn’s top 4 ball carriers (all of whom will get touches Saturday).  While Dyer is the phenom, Onterio McCalebb is just pure speed and quicks.  If he gets a hole, he’s gone.  Ask LSU.  On the season he’s averaging 9.3 ypc.  Most folks would be clamoring for him to have more touches but when they take the ball away from Dyer and Newton it just makes no sense.  Add in the veteran Mario Fannin and you have a loaded backfield.  Fannin is a pass catching threat but McCalebb only has 2 catches on the year and Dyer 1.

WR – Early on this season, Auburn’s passing attack was essentially just Darvin Adams, but as well as he was playing, it made sense.  The Jr from Kennesaw has had an incredible year although it’s a step back statistically from last season’s 10 TD effort.  That’s largely just a result of the efficiency of Auburn’s ground game.  Adams is a threat down the field and makes clutch plays.  Sr. Terrell Zachary has come on as of late and added another option to the mix.

OL – As if the rest of the stuff I’ve talked about on their offense wasn’t enough, they start 4 seniors and a junior on the OL.  Coming into the season, the 2 OLs with the most starting experience in the SEC were Auburn and us.  Auburn’s OL has played like they’re experienced.  OUrs, not so much.  LT Lee Ziemba has started since his freshman year and is a massive, prototype LT.  Ryan Pugh is a smart, experienced center.  Not a lot to get excited about here (for us anyway).

Overall – Auburn will score points.  I feel comfortable saying that as long as Newton plays.  It’s a tough unit to figure out though.  Clemson had some success slowing them by dominating along the line of scrimmage but Clemson has one of the best DLs in college football.  Mississippi State just uglied them to near death (which they actually pulled off against us).  LSU gave them fits because LSU has a really good defense.  The one that’s interesting to look at is Kentucky.  Up 31-17 at the half, Auburn struggled offensively (and defensively) out of the gates in the 2nd half, starting with an INT and 2 3 and outs, allowing UK back in it before they went straight up grind-mode and gave the ball to Newton for 2 4th quarter FGs, each of which gave AU the lead with the final one coming on the last play of the game.  I imagine we’ll be watching that tape closely to establish our gameplan.  For a run-based offense, they spread the field a lot in the base set, making it harder to load the box, but I think we’ll put 8 in there often, bringing a safety down, trying to force Newton to throw.  He’s by no means a bad passer, in fact, he’s very good, he’s just so lethal running the ball (as is the rest of their backfield) that I think we’d rather roll the dice with him throwing it than controlling the game on the ground.

Matchup – Akeem Dent is having an excellent senior season and it’ll be interesting watching him chase Newton all over the field.  If we’re going to win, he’s going to need a lot of tackles, but I think the key to the game is going to be the play of our secondary.  Can our CBs play good coverage without a lot of help?  Can our safeties come up and make the big plays that it seems like they’ve missed on more than one occasion this year?

Auburn D

Overall –  The Auburn defense has a ton of talent and frankly should be much better than their stats indicate but honestly, they haven’t had to be the dominant Auburn defenses you’ve come to expect.  The great Auburn teams of the past always seemed to be characterized by ferocious defenses.  This one, while inconsistent, might be as much about complacency as anything.  They know their offense is going to put up 40 or so, so they can afford to give up some plays.  Ted Roof is known for that.  Ask a GT fan about it.  THe honest ones (or football literate ones) will  roll their eyes at the mention of his name.  Stout against the run (18th nationally and 3rd in the SEC) but struggling against the pass (95th nationally and 11th in the SEC), this defense is tough to figure.

DL – You could make a strong argument that the best defensive player in the SEC this season is Auburn DT Nick Fairley.  At 6-5, 300, he’s got ideal size and he’s really figured out how to use it this season, racking up a whopping 18 TFLs (to lead the team by 11) including 7.5 sacks (leading the team by 4).  Just for fun, add in a team-leading 15 QB hurries and you can see why this guy has shot up the draft charts of NFL scouts and is now projected as a top 15 pick.  Fellow DT Zach Clayton doesn’t get near the pub mainly because he doesn’t put up near the stats, but he’s a very effective interior guy, especially with Fairley commanding double teams.  Antoine Carter is the best option at DE but only has 3.5 sacks on the year.

LB –  Sr. MLB Josh Bynes is leading the team in tackles and putting together a nice season.  He’s managed to snag 3 INTs on the season and I think they all came off of Arkansas’ backup in the span of about 30 seconds of the 4th quarter, turning a close game into a complete debacle.  Flanked by fellow senior Craig Stevens, Auburn has gotten good LB play, particularly in run support.

DB – Despite some considerable talent back there, the Auburn secondary has really struggled against the pass.  As mentioned before, they currently rank 95th nationally and 11th in the SEC giving up over 240 ypg.  CB Neiko Thorpe is talented with good size but too often seems to give up big plays. S Zac Etheridge is a good story coming off a scary injury last year to reclaim his starting spot and nearly leads the team in tackles.

Overall Defense –  Look at the stats, Auburn appears to be very good against the run and not so good against the pass.  I think that’s a bit misleading.  With an offense as stout as they have, they’ve been up on folks a pretty good bit, forcing those teams to abandon the run a bit just because.  Teams down by 3 TDs don’t make it a habit of running the ball a lot, so I think those stats are distorted a bit.  On the flip side, they did completely shut down Lattimore and Arkansas’ backup QB  threw for more than 330 yards in 2.5 quarters, so maybe they really are that good and that bad.  Whatever the case, I think our best chance to win revolves around AJ Green and the other passing weapons we have.  Orson Charles certainly seems to have found his groove and will present matchup problems for their LBs.  We’re going to have to run at some point though and that means dealing with Fairley.

Matchup to watch – Man it’s really hard to say. Auburn plays a lot of zone coverages so you can’t really watch AJ versus any one DB or Orson versus a LB, so I’d say watching Fairley vs. our interior is going to be key.  If they get pressure without having  to blitz, we’ll have trouble all day getting anything going.

Overall Thoughts -

On paper, we don’t stand a chance.  Did I mention that earlier?  The offense they put on the field is loaded producing like few we’ve seen in the SEC.  We’re a .500 football team that lost to a team that fired its coach.  In fact, we lost to a Colorado team that has more SEC wins (1) on the season than Big XII wins (0).

Unfortunately for Auburn though, this massive game where they could clinch their first SEC division title since 2004 comes amidst a swarm of controversy.  Newton has been battered from every side this week and if anyone tells you they know how he’ll react, they’re trying to convince themselves as much as you.  Last weekend he played well while the rumors were starting to swirl but he was playing a completely outmatched opponent.  As much as UGA has struggled this year, they are still a dangerous football team, especially if their opponent is a bit distracted.

Fortunately for Auburn they have the fact that they can knock off UGA and clinch the West.  That should certainly be enough to keep the team focused.  If that’s not enough, the coaching staff can simply remind them that they’ve lost 4 in a row to UGA, meaning, unless there’s a 6th year medical redshirt on the team, no one on Auburn’s team has experienced a win over UGA (outside of Newton who was technically on the 2008 UF team that destroyed UGA, he was redshirting though).  Given the considerable number of Georgia natives that annually comprise the Auburn depth chart, that’s not an insignificant fact.

One last thing, Murray has started off incredibly slow the last two weeks.  I don’t know if it’s nerves, cold or what, but this week we cant afford a similar start to last week as Auburn could be up 3 scores early if we don’t protect the ball.  Up until the UF game, Murray had largely played like a veteran.  He’s shown some rookie mistakes lately but has impressively rallied to put the team in a position to win (UF) or outright dominate (ISU).  Come to think of it, it’s about time Newton played like a kid without much college experience.  Auburn fans would take a shaky performance this week if it means they get his A-game against Bama.  I would too.

Positional Notes:

-Kris Durham returns to provide more depth and stretch-the-field-ability.  After watching him go after the ball against UF I realized how much we’re going to miss him next year.

-Alec Ogletree’s development has apparently landed him as a starter.  Richt seemed very pleased with the results of the freshman after the Idaho State game.  He seems to be very instinctive and doesn’t miss a tackle when he gets a shot.  Two solid features from your safety.

-I mentioned Dent earlier but we’ll need big days from both MLBs, be it Robinson or Dowtin opposite Dent, in order to slow this Auburn ground game.  That mesh read play scares the mess out of me and when the other guys getting the ball are as talented as their RBs are, your LBs better come ready to play.

Random Thoughts

-Umm, you ever hear the phrase, where there’s smoke there’s fire?  Well, somebody apparently set off a few smoke bombs in Auburn this past weekend.  My guess is that someone is Nick Saban.  According to the stuff I’ve read, the SEC office knew about the MSU allegations in January and have been “investigating” since then.  I wouldn’t be shocked (and I know Auburn fans pretty much expect it) to find that Saban somehow got wind of it through improper channels and ordered the code red.  Of course he wasn’t expecting to wet the bed against SC and LSU to spoil his chance at another division title, but he can’t really sit back and let Auburn grab momentum in HIS state, can he?

-Yeah, I know, UGA is 5-5.  Look around though.  Texas is sub-.500.  Tennessee is a disaster of epic proportions.  FSU is a mediocre 6-3 and perennial powers (at least at one point) Notre Dame and Michigan are shadows of their former selves.  I guess that’s why we’re seriously looking at the chance of Boise State and TCU playing for the title.

-Oregon is really good, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them stumble against Oregon State.

-The hypocrisy of ESPN discussing LSU for a shot at the title despite possibly not winning their division is disgusting.  They wouldn’t even remotely consider UGA under that same scenario in 2007.  Les freakin’ Miles.  I’m still shocked that with all the chaos, Ohio State hasn’t somehow re-emerged as a title contender.

-OK, TV.  Boardwalk Empire is still really good.  Community is having a serious sophomore slump after being really good last year.  I miss Parks & Recreation.  The Office is not close to what it used to be.  I’m kinda in a TV funk right now.  I blame the UGA football season.

-So basketball season is upon us.  I’m fired up about this season and it’s not just because our football season went in the tank.  We have a legit shot at being very good.  Lots of talent on the team and we’re so much more watchable than we were under the previous regime it’s not even comparable.

As always,

have a safe weekend.

Jody

Posted under 2008 Season by jody on Thursday 11 November 2010 at 12:37 am