Last one of the year…

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Week 13 (SECCG)

Opponent:  LSU Tigers

Kickoff:  4:00 PM

TV: CBS

Folks, this last 10 weeks has been fun.  Let’s close it out in style.

About the GT game…­­­­­­

Simply glorious.  That game was never in doubt.  After the hiccup that was Murray’s INT on the opening drive our offense was essentially doing whatever they wanted.  Defensively we were able to slow the vaunted Paul Johnson rushing attack and allow the decidedly unvaunted Paul Johnson passing attack to debacle itself.  I’ve tried to use debacle as a verb at every opportunity since hearing Emmitt Smith use it as such.  That man is a wordsmith.

Anyway, not much transference from last week to this one as we’re going from the Yellow Jacket “defense” to one of the top defenses of the last few years in LSU.  On the other side of the ball, instead of playing a run-first, second and third offense that occasionally tries to pass, LSU brings a truly balanced attack to the game that can move the ball equally effectively either way.  Oh well, let’s do this.

LSU Offense

• The LSU offense is loaded with dynamic playmakers outside, a ton of big, athletic RBs, a solid OL and experienced depth at QB.  They’ve scored on everyone they’ve played this season with relative ease, other than the notable exception of the Bama game.  They’re stronger on the ground than through the air but they aren’t shy about throwing it if needed.  As with most balanced offenses, they’ll flip the script occasionally to surprise the defense and with a Les Miles-coached team, the surprises can come early and often.
• At QB, a pair of seniors have split duties this year in what is probably the underemphasized aspect of why I think Les Miles is the clear coach of the year in the SEC.  Jordan Jefferson gets suspended for his role in a bar fight, gives way to Jarrett Lee, returns, works his way slowly into the rotation before taking over outright and the team just kept on winning.  Jefferson has a good arm and is very mobile if necessary.  Lee hasn’t been rotating in much the last few weeks but is far more of a pocket passer that seems to have conquered his early career knack for throwing pick 6s (He threw 2 to Daryl Gamble in Baton Rouge in 2008…in my best Chris Farley voice: “You remember that Daryl? That was awesome”).
• At RB, they have a bunch of depth.  Spencer Ware was getting the bulk of the touches early in the year but since his suspension has seen his touches cut drastically.  A former HS QB, the guy is a load when he gets going.  Prior to suspension he got over 20 carries in every meaningful game.  Since then, not once.  Fellow sophomore Michael Ford is explosive and his 6.2 ypc is impressive but not quite as good as 3^rd stringer Alfred Blue’s.  You see the depth they have.  Add in FB/HB/bowling ball Kenny Hilliard and LSU sports 4 different RBs with 6 or more rushing TDs (we have none).
• LSU has churned out fast, agile WRs for years.  This year is no different as Rueben Randle has experienced a major breakout, catching 48 passes for nearly 900 yards and 8 TDs.  He’s listed at 6-4, 210 but moves like a much smaller WR, very quick in tight spaces and if you miss, he’s got plenty of speed to get yards in chunks.  RFr Odell Beckham Jr. has emerged as the top threat on the opposite side, joining Randle as the only WRs on the team with more than 14 catches on the season.  The X-factor here is former top recruit Russell Shepard.  As good a pure athlete as you’ll find, he’s struggled to find a spot as a true WR where he doesn’t seem natural.  Once the ball gets in his hands though, he’s dangerous.  Look for him on sweeps, reverses and in the Wildcat occasionally.  LSU has several big, fast TEs but they haven’t gone to them much this year.  That probably means they’re about to bust out.
• The LSU OL is big.  Not as big as ours, but who is?  The only underclassmen starter is at LT and they’re pretty deep too.  They lead the conference in sacks allowed (1 per game) and are 2^nd in the league in rushing yardage.  That tells me all I need to know about their OL.
• Bottom Line:  There’s not a lot of hidden stuff with what LSU will do if they have their way.  They are a power football team that, while capable of passing, would rather just run it right down your throat.  They have a bevy of big, talented backs that pound and gash you.  Our DL is built for that and our LBs have shown an increased ability to handle it this year too.  While LSU tends to run right at you with that weird pitch-dive thing they do, I feel good about lateral speed on sweeps and the like after watching how we handled Auburn and GT the last few weeks.  In the passing attack, Grantham has to love the options he has now with Ogletree, Jones and Washington in terms of bringing heat in passing situations.  As well as their QBs have played all year, I still like the idea of Grantham and our D versus Jefferson or Lee in obvious passing situations.  While LSU will clearly bring as good an OL as we’ve faced all year, since about week 3 we’ve been as good or better than anyone in the country in terms of getting to the QB. Since Ogletree has returned from his first quarter injury against Boise to play in the UF game, our defense has really seen everyone find their role and the results have been impressive.  It’s going to be fun watching that unit try and prove they belong in the conversation with Bama and LSU in terms of the top defenses in the conference (and thus the nation).
• Key matchup to watch when they have the ball:  LSU loves to run right at people.  They have the depth and talent to do it all game and they’ve shown (like against Bama) that if they’re facing a strong D they feel their defense is good enough that they don’t have to score a ton of points to win the game and are content to control the ball/clock and not make mistakes.  That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on our NG and the ILBs.  Jenkins has been playing really well lately and Ogletree is rapidly becoming a force.  They love doing that pitch dive a lot and the middle of our front 7 better be ready, because if they pick up yards there it could be a long night.

LSU Defense

• If it weren’t for the Alabama defense, this LSU unit might be labeled as one of the best ever in the SEC.  As it is, they’re just the 2^nd best in the conference.  It’s a very close 2^nd though.  They’re 2^nd to Bama in rushing, scoring and total defense and 3^rd in passing (behind Bama SC).  Heck, they’re nearly top 10 nationally in all those categories too despite playing the toughest schedule in the country (the SEC schedule plus offensive beasts WVU and Oregon).  Obviously they’re the best defense we’ll play all year, but the other top unit we played (SC) was a game we scored 42 in, so who knows.  Lead by longtime UT DC John Chavis, this group has become one of the more opportunistic defenses you’ll ever see.
• The LSU DL is really, really good and surprisingly young.  If Barkevious (how did that guy not go to UGA?) Mingo starts over Kendrick Adams at LE, they’ll be starting 4 sophomores along their front.  They rotate heavily across the whole group so don’t expect them to wear down much.  While they are incredibly athletic across the whole front, they aren’t particularly large at all.  In fact, they only have 1 DL listed over 300 pounds and only 2 over 290.  While that doesn’t mean they’re weak in any way (Bama certainly wasn’t able to enforce their will), it is interesting to note they could have trouble with our sheer size along the OL.
• The LSU LB corps as expected is incredibly athletic.  Given how good the DL is and how much press the secondary gets, the LB unit doesn’t get a lot of publicity but they’re as good as any we’ve faced this year.  You don’t put up numbers like they have on defense with bad LBs.  Ryan Baker, a squatty senior that reminds me of Tony Taylor after he bulked up leads the unit in tackles.
• This secondary is absolutely unreal.  Everyone knows about Tyrann Mathieu (The Honey Badger) who is listed at CB and despite his 5-9, 175 pound frame, will play all over the place, but the CB opposite him, Morris Claiborne is better and is currently the top rated CB for the 2012 NFL draft.  How active is this secondary?  All 4 are in the top 5 on the team in tackles.  In fact, the top 3 tacklers on the team are all DBs.  How much of an individual talent is Mathieu?  He leads the team in tackles.  As a CB.  Their 3^rd CB, Ron Brooks, would likely be all-conference if it wasn’t for the fact he can’t even start on his own team.  He’s good enough to be 3^rd on the team in sacks and has two pick 6s on the season.  Seriously?  The safeties are awesome too.
• Bottom Line:  Look, our offense is predicated on the ground game.  We run enough to make teams respect it and throw play action off of that.  If we can’t run against defenses that are looking pass, then it’s going to be a long, long day.  That’s why Crowell is so important against a team like LSU.  Sure you can beat the Kentuckys or Techs of the world with a guy like Brandon Harton or Carlton Thomas but against a team as stout as LSU, you need a running threat they have to really fear.  As good as LSU’s DBs are, Chavis can afford to play more man coverage than most but if they don’t think they have to commit more to the run to stop it, why would they?  I think they’ll take those extra guys and blitz us until we yield, at least early.  Our OL isn’t phenomenal in pass protection and we’ve certainly seen Murray under pressure some this year, causing more than a few of his turnovers, so until he (and our OL) prove they can stop or burn the blitz (via run or pass), if I’m Chavis, I’m bringing it early and often.  It’s going to fall to Murray (and Bobo) to pick that up and account for it.
• Key matchup to watch when we have the ball:  The Honey Badger versus our whole team.  That guy is as dynamic a playmaker as you’ll see on defense.  He just makes turnovers happen everywhere.  He’s like Polamalu-lite.  We haven’t turned the ball over a lot this year but we’ve put it on the ground a few times and had more than a few close ones reviewed.  Guys like Orson Charles and Murray will have to secure the ball when the Badger’s around and this year he’s as close to omnipresent on the field as you can get.

The Championship Game Overall

Look, LSU is a great football team, there’s no denying that, but the fact is the UGA team that will take the field this Saturday has proved for 10 straight weeks that they are better than everyone they’ve taken the field against too.  You can’t discount how good a team LSU is, and they’ve certainly answered every bell they’ve been given all year, but the fact is, UGA isn’t too far behind.  LSU has been dominant all season.  It just took UGA a couple of games to find themselves.

It’s a combination of things that have resulted in our increased effectiveness but there’s little doubt as to what makes our offensive tick…Aaron Murray.  In games he’s struggled, like Kentucky, our offense has looked beatable by, pretty much anyone but Kentucky at a minimum.  In games he’s played well, like Auburn, our offense has looked nearly unbeatable.  Even against Tech, without the benefit of a running game, Murray was able to drive the offense through the air at will.  Today’s college game doesn’t have to have an elite QB to be successful, but it sure helps, and right now there’s none better in the SEC.  He’s not immune to mistakes and occasionally makes an erratic throw or three but he’s improved tremendously over the last half of this season and gives us a puncher’s chance this week.

At this point, I think we know what LSU is capable of.  UGA has a much wider range of possible efforts come Saturday.  Do we get the team that destroyed Auburn or the one that struggled with Kentucky?  The scary thing is that as dominant as we were against Auburn in our 45-7 romp, LSU was our equal with a 45-10 win.  Granted their game was only 21-3 at the half compared to our 35-7 drubbing but it just goes to show you how good LSU is.  That was our best performance this year.  That was their average one.  They beat 6 SEC opponents (everyone other than Bama and MSU) by 24 and beat four of those by 30 or more, including both Tennessee and Florida (who were admittedly without their starting QBs).

Lastly, this UGA team has gotten more dangerous as the season has gone on.  The RB injuries/suspensions/etc. have made Mike Bobo get a little more creative and have forced him to challenge Murray to carry the team a little more and he’s responded.  The result is a much more diverse offense than we started the season with.  Our young WRs are no longer a bunch of starry-eyed freshmen.  If we can bring some healthy RBs to ATL, we have the real chance of having that balanced offensive attack but now with a coordinator who’s operating with a ton of confidence.  I was frustrated with Bobo earlier this season but I’ve loved what I’ve seen here lately and I can’t wait to see what happens Saturday.  Win or lose, I’m thrilled at the prospects of the next few seasons.

Positional Notes

• Crowell will likely go Saturday but given the way his year has gone and the fact it is an ankle issue, I can’t imagine he makes it the whole game.  3 good quarters would be nice.
• I can’t say enough for how well Garrison Smith played in place of Tyson last week.  He’s done a really nice job in limited opportunities this year.  He’s poised for a really big year next year.
• I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.  Alec Ogletree could be a terror coming after the passer and will at some point.  He and Jarvis allow us some serious flexibility that I love.
• Shawn Williams’ INT of Tevin Washington last week was a thing of beauty.  That guy plays with a ton of heart.  Now if we can keep it reined in.  We can afford dumb 15-yard penalties against Tech.  We can’t against this next bunch.
• Jarvis Jones might be my favorite Bulldog defender in a long while.  Back to Thomas Davis at least.  The guy just does his job and goes back to do it again.  Very business-like.  Add to it the fact he’s adamant that he’s returning next year despite likely being an All-American with a first round draft rating and what’s not to like?  I’m betting Lane Kiffin fired the doctor that wouldn’t clear him to play while he was at USC.

Random Thoughts

• Can you name the starting Center on the 2005 SEC Championship team?  It stumped me.  Answer at the bottom.
• So Ed Cunningham went to Washington.  I guess they didn’t take the ol’ Apple Cup (the Washington-Washington State Rivalry game) very seriously up there.  That’s the only reason I can figure he kept saying we’d probably be sitting Murray and Orson and Jarvis in like the 2^nd quarter.  Does he not realize how big that game was?  A loss in that game from sitting starters would have probably gotten Richt’s seat hotter than anything else he’s done to date.  Seriously.
• Recruiting seems to be ramping up with the conclusion of so many HS seasons.  Our top RB target (and one of the top RBs in the country) announces Tuesday and is considered to be a UGA lean.  A speedster out of NC, Keith Marshall would be an ideal addition at a position of need.  There’s a ton of top guys that we’re still on but probably the next two highest wants are another top OT (the Young kid out of FL would be ideal) and the guy who could be Jarvis’ understudy next year in Josh Harvey-Clemons out of Lowndes County.  With Florida being down and Florida State not stepping up like they had thought they would, we need to make that count.
• Everyone keeps saying that Bama is a lock for the BCS game but they fail to remember what happened back in 2007.  UGA fans darn sure do.  Basically the pollsters all stepped back and instead of moving people around based on recent wins or losses they kind of reset the whole thing on the big picture.  If Oklahoma State manhandles Oklahoma and LSU struggles with UGA or loses, I could easily see OkSt passing Bama in some measure of backlash against the SEC.  OkSt is already in front of Bama in more than 1 computer poll.  You want to see nuclear meltdown?  Tell Bama fans they are denied what they feel is their right to play for whatever national title they’re now claiming.  It’d be the worst thing to happen to them since…well, last year, when Auburn won the whole thing.
• The Kirby Smart to Ole Miss rumors are interesting.  Given how well he recruits Georgia, I’d like him to go ahead and get away from Bama.  I’d prefer he go to Texas A&M just because it’s even farther but anything that gets him out of Bama is a good thing.
• If I were a Heisman voter I don’t think I’d be real happy about having to vote in this year’s contest.  Trent Richardson is a very fine RB but he’s not really been dynamic.  I just think Ki-Jana Carter.  Everyone talks about how weak our schedule was and how we missed out on the top 3 west teams.  I think they missed out on us.  We’d probably be the 2^nd toughest team Bama played this year as they missed the only two good teams from the east and got both LSU and Arkansas at home.  Outside of a road win over a bad Penn State team their OOC games were Kent State, North Texas and Ga Southern.  That’s pathetic and I think it would be funny if it burned them.
• LSU is so good their punter has a taunting call against him…while scoring a TD.
• If this game comes down to a Blair Walsh field goal I don’t think I can watch.  For a guy who’s been so good for 3 years, what’s happened here this season is painful.  Although, if he did get that shot and knocked it through, all would easily be forgiven on my end.  Of course, LSU has some weird voodoo hex on kickers.  Ask Bama.
• So Urban Meyer is back in coaching.  That didn’t take long.  His tenure at UF (6 years) was a full 3 times longer than either of his other previous head coaching jobs.  I think he obviously does a very good job early on but I wonder if the long haul aspect of being the man isn’t something he’s geared for.  If he’s there for 4 years that might be long enough to see them off of probation but I’ll bet he wins and wins big there but I don’t see him being there a long time.  Even though it looks like they’re poised for some possibly serious NCAA sanctions, I’d still take that job over Penn State in a no-brainer.
• This is the 3^rd time we’ve faced LSU in the SECCG.  The first time (2003), they were the clear favorites and clobbered us on the way to the national title.  The second time (2005), they were the clear favorites and we clobbered them on our way to…an embarrassing loss to WVU.  Who did we open the season with in 2005?  That’s right, Boise State.  Of course we completely killed them and made their All-WAC QB cry but that was a while ago.  Here’s to repeating history.
• Trivia Answer: Ryan Schnetzer.  I completely forgot about that guy.  I had thought it was Russ Tanner but they split time and Schnetzer started and played most (if not all) of that game.

As always,

Have a safe weekend,

Jody

Download the Kentucky Writeup here

Week 11

Opponent:  Kentucky Wildcats

Kickoff:  12:30 PM

TV: SEC-TV

I suppose Vegas was on to something that I wasn’t expecting…but I liked it…

About the Auburn game…­­­­­­

Wow.  I don’t know where to start on that game.  I’ve said all year that at some point the offense and defense would click together and we’d unload on someone.  I figured it would happen against UK or someone that didn’t matter all that much but man was I wrong.  What we did to Auburn was truly impressive.  The 45-7 score doesn’t truly encompass how thorough of a pounding we administered.  We attempted all of two second half passes.  We didn’t need them.

Despite seeing constant 8 and 9-man fronts, we simply ground the game out, picking up first down after first down.  After seeing a first half that produced 35 points off of 7 UGA drives, we successfully ground the game out to the tune of 4 2^nd half drives (2 scores, a fumble and the game ender).  Our first 3 drives of the half averaged over 10 plays each and nearly 6.5 minutes each.  Auburn’s 2^nd half drive chart looked considerably more humble: punt, fumble, punt, turnover on downs.  They ran 20 2^nd half plays to our 35 (again, 33 of which were running plays).  It was quite simply the most dominant performance I can recall seeing in Sanford in quite a while.  There were only 2 games that were comparable to me were the 2004 game against LSU (also a defending national champion) and the 2002 GT game (not a defending national champion).  The LSU game saw us trot out to an early 24-0 lead that got whittled to 24-10 before halftime before we pushed it to 45-10 on the strength of a great day from David Greene.  He threw 5 TD passes on only 10/19 passing.  A late LSU TD made it 45-16.  The 51-7 GT romp was a snoozer early on, 44-0 going into the 4^th quarter.  This felt like those, but even more absolute.  The domination was complete.  We simply did what we wanted to and if Richt had had a Urban Meyer type axe to grind after last year’s rowdy contest and wanted to prove a point, we could’ve score 60 easily.

Well, as awesome as the win was, it got us nothing other than bragging rights.  This week?  That’s a different story, as a hapless UK team stands between us and a trip to the SECC game.  A game that’s looking less and less like the long shot it did a few weeks ago.

UK Offense

• We’re going to keep things simple this week and do this quicker than normal. Starting QB Morgan Newton got hurt and Freshman Maxwell Smith has stepped in the last 3 weeks.  Leading the Cats to by far and away their most convincing win, a 30-13 win that sealed Houston Nutt’s fate, he’s done a decent job, but doesn’t complete a high percentage of passes and isn’t overly mobile.  The Wildcat offense is truly bad, ranking dead last in the SEC in passing offense, total offense and scoring offense.  If it wasn’t for Tennessee’s hyper anemic running game, UK would be dead last in all 4 of the major offensive categories.    La’Rod King has been the only real offensive bright spot, catching 39 balls for almost 600 yards and 7 TDs.  No one else has more than 1 and only 5 guys have TD catches.
• Bottom Line:  After struggling early to score points, it appeared that UK had found through groove with a new QB, putting up 30 against Ole Miss at home.  Then they went to Vandy and managed only 8 points.  In their SEC road games this year, they’ve yet to score more than 8 (7 vs LSU, 3 vs SC and 8 vs Vandy).  That’s awful.  They are one of the worst teams in the country in terms of protecting the QB, giving up 3 sacks per game on average.  Considering UGA leads the conference in sacks per game, I’m thinking we’re going to see a lot of running game from the Cats, trying desperately to avoid mandatory passing situations.  If they have to turn to their QB to win this game or move the ball steadily, it might get really ugly.  How ugly?  Only two teams in the country have a lower team passing efficiency.
• Key matchup to watch when they have the ball:  Ogletree is playing at a really high level all over the field, but he’s yet to really add any kind of pass rush to his game, so with that said, I want to really watch Jarvis Jones because he’s really emerged as a consistent pass rush threat in recent weeks and I’m thinking he could have a really big day.

UK Defense

• The UK defense is slightly better than their offensive counterparts.  11^th in rushing defense, 8^th in passing defense, and 10^th in both total defense and scoring defense is hardly anything to get super excited about.  The strength of the D is SEC tackles leader, LB Danny Trevathan.  They gave up 38 to Vandy last week.  They also gave up 54 to South Carolina.  They’ve struggled equally against the run and the pass.
• Bottom Line:  Usually when offense are clicking like ours is and they go up against a bad defense like this you’d expect a blowout, and there’s really nothing to indicate that won’t be the case, but in my experience, things rarely play exactly as they should on paper.  As thoroughly as we dominated Auburn in the first half, it was largely due to the fact that we were 7 for 7 on our first 7 3^rd down attempts.  When you do that against anyone you’re going to look more effective.  I’d hope against UK we won’t have to rely on a similar conversion rate for a win.  Look for us to try and establish the run early as we’ve had some issues running the ball on some teams early in games.  We take over late but I’d like to see a “We Run This State (GT 2009) level ground game out of the gate.
• Key matchup to watch when we have the ball:  Isaiah Crowell versus Danny Trevathan should be a great matchup.  Trevathan has led the SEC in tackles the last couple of years and is a tremendously athletic guy that covers a ton of ground.  Crowell, despite his considerable and obvious talents, has yet to break a long TD run in his brief career.  His long carry on the season is merely 29 yards.  Given his speed and quickness, that’s surprising.  I’m going to be watching for that big run.

The UK Game Overall

UK is not a good football team.  Just ask most anyone, including UK fans.  In conference road games this year, they’re averaging a loss of over 36 points and only putting up 6 points.  That means that on average, every one of their SEC road games has been almost as bad a beating as we gave to Auburn last weekend.  That’s not to say they aren’t capable of some level of decency.  They did pull out a win against Ole Miss and they did manage to stay within 12 of Miss State, but both of those games were at home.

This is the type of game that good teams win handily.  On paper we should completely roll but we’ve been in this position before and I can’t say it always played out the way we wanted it to.  Two years ago this same UK team beat us at home.  Granted, that wasn’t a great UGA team by any stretch but after watching some of the relatively close games we’ve played this season against clearly overmatched opponents, I’m not ready just yet to crown ourselves SEC-East champs.

With that said, Richt has a chance Saturday to do something he hasn’t done at UGA and that’s win 9 straight games.  He won 8 to open the 2002 season before the loss in Jacksonville but he’s never won 9.  Let’s go ahead and lock this thing up Saturday in convincing style.

Positional Notes

• Alright, Aaron Murray can now say he’s thrown more TDs in any given season than any QB in UGA history.  And he still has at least 3 games left, maybe 4.  Although I don’t know how many TD passes he’s going to pick up against an LSU or Bama.  He’s thrown 9 TDs in essentially his last 4 quarters (I’m not counting the 2^nd half of the last two games because he didn’t play in of them and he didn’t hardly throw the ball in the other).  With the exception of the Mississippi State and Florida games, he’s completed a pass of at least 32 yards in every contest.  Wow.  And now he’s added the scramble game back a bit…watch out.
• I continue to be amazed at how well our LBs are playing this season.
• I’m even more amazed at our WRs.  This was supposed to be a weakness this year.  Could you imagine if AJ Green has hung around for his senior year?
• Ben Jones will probably go down as one of my all-time favorite UGA linemen.
• The thing about Ogletree that’s so impressive is that he seems to have a real knack for causing fumbles.  He did it against Florida and again versus Auburn (against Rainey and Dyer no less) where he just went in for a normal tackle and managed to strip the ball.  He must have incredibly strong hands.  He certainly doesn’t look weak.

Random Thoughts

• So, if I had to guess right now, I’d say that if Arkansas beats LSU in the season finale, I’m going out on a limb and saying that the East representative would end up facing…Arkansas.  I think they’d likely hop Bama and while they might not pass LSU in the BCS, they only have to get past Bama since the 7^th 3-way tie-breaker states that the top-ranked BCS team goes unless the next of the 3 is ranked within 5 spots.  All 3 of them could be in the top 5 at that point.  Honestly, I think Bama probably has the longest shot of the 3 for the SEC title game.  The need LSU to lose and fall behind both them AND Arkansas in the BCS and I don’t see that happening.
• OK Verne, you’ve had a nice run.  While your voice is clearly synonymous with big-time SEC football, maybe it’s time to either up the preparation hours or step back from the booth.  His performances just aren’t nearly as crisp as they used to be.
• Do you think there’s any chance that if everyone holds serve and Herbstreit draws Bama in the board discussion like they had in 2007 that there’s any chance he pulls the same stunt he did with us and says he doesn’t think they deserve a shot?  Nick Saban would have someone take him out with a deer rifle…and Herbie knows it.
• Have you looked at Tennessee’s out-of-conference schedule this year?  It’s embarrassing.  Montana, Cincinnati, Buffalo and MTSU.  That’s as bad a group as I’ve ever seen from any of the typical big boys.  Given that those 4 are their only wins to date, I guess it makes sense.  They have to sweep Vandy and UK to get bowl eligible.  That ain’t a given.  If UK is ever going to beat UT, it would be this year but I think I’ve said that each of the last 5 years and it still hasn’t happened.  UK has lost 30 straight or something in that series.
• I didn’t think I could possibly get creeped out about the whole Sandusky-Penn St story any more.  Then I heard him speak in that Bob Costas interview.  Oh man that guy completely embodies creepy old man syndrome.  If he’s found guilty, they need to come up with some new punishments.

• Do you realize that if Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma, a distinct possibility, then the likely top 2 contenders to face LSU will be 2 teams they’ve played already (Oregon and Alabama).  I would think that things would somehow be arranged so that Oklahoma would jump up to #2 to avoid that.  I really do.
• Do you realize how high-scoring the Oklahoma State-Oklahoma game is going to be?  That’s the same day as the SEC title game since the Big XII doesn’t have a title game anymore.

As always,

Have a safe weekend,

Jody

Viewfrom336.com

Download AU Wiretup in pdf here

Week 10

Opponent:  Auburn Tigers

Kickoff:  3:30 PM

TV: CBS

Alright, the stars aligned and now we simply need to take down Auburn and Kentucky and the SEC East title is ours.  Onward…

About the NMSt game…­­­­­­

Not much sense in talking about this one too much.  We completely dominated an overmatched team.  Granted it was a team that had beaten Minnesota, who nearly took down Michigan State, but last Saturday they were simply outclassed.  I can’t imagine what kind of yardage Crowell would’ve gone for.  I don’t know that I can recall seeing a gap in speed between two teams that was more defined.  The offense showed up.  The defense showed up.  Heck, we didn’t even have a special teams meltdown.

AU Offense

• Gone is #1 overall draft pick Cam Newton.  With him went most of Auburn’s offensive potency.  OK, that’s not fair, AU lost a lot more than just Newton from last year’s team, including the bulk of their OL.  They’ve struggled to regain the same effectiveness they had last year, especially through the air, but after some indecision at QB, they’ve settled down and appear to have gotten some things sorted out.  Still, the stats aren’t pretty, as they currently rank 108^th in passing offense and while their run offense is 2^nd in the SEC, overall, they’re in the bottom half in both total O and scoring O.
• After Barrett Trotter proved ineffective, AU turned to Clint Moseley, who has sparked the offense somewhat.  He came on against UF and led the Tigers to a win.  It wasn’t really his fault in the debacle against LSU, as he only threw 1 INT (returned for a TD) and completed 60% of his passes.  He was super efficient against Ole Miss in their best offensive performance to date. A big kid, he’s not going to run the ball effectively but he looks to be pretty darn accurate.  Freshman Kiehl Frazier is their resident wildcat guy.  He can throw it and came in as a highly decorated passer but so far he’s nearly got as many INTs (2) as he does completions (5).  It wouldn’t shock me to see a wrinkle this week with him throwing more.
• The AU ground attack sports 2 solid backs but Michael Dyer is the clear leader back there.  He’s only listed at 207 but he’s short and keeps his legs moving, delivering far more power than most 207 pounders.  He’s got great speed and has been solid all year.  After scoring 2 TDs in each of the 3 opening games, he’s been keyed on more and kinda dinged up, only picking up 3 TDs over the last 6 games combined.  He’s been held below 75 yards in 4 games but they won 3 of those, so he’s not the end all of their offense.  Speedster Ontario McCalebb has less than half the carries of Dyer so far but has the same average per carry.  He’s a nice change of pace to Dyer, with pure speed and slash to Dyer’s speed-power combo.  Where Dyer only has 2 catches this season, McCalebb has reeled in 23 on the year.
• At WR, the Tigers have really struggled.  Emory Blake is the clear #1 option and has 24 grabs on the year to lead the team despite missing 3 games with an ankle injury.  He’s caught a TD pass in all but 1 game he’s played in this year (technically he played one play against UF but was limited).  A solid WR at 6-1, 200, he’s obviously got a knack for getting open and makes clutch catches.  His stats are almost dead on those of Malcolm Mitchell only with more TDs, so that should give you a frame of reference.  No one else is a consistent threat at WR but when they get in scoring territory, look for Philip Lutzenkirchen.  Buddy Ryan’s infamous quote about Chris Carter, “all that guy does is catch TDs,” could easily apply to this guy.  He just makes big plays.  He has 12 career TDs on 37 career receptions. I think I’ve seen every TD grab as I would’ve thought he had even more.
• The Auburn OL lost a ton of experience with 111 career starts heading into 2010 dropping to a mere 15 going into this year.  The two tackles are the most experienced while the inside of the line is younger and certainly learning the ropes.  It shows, as they are 81^st nationally in sacks allowed at over 2 per game.  Much of the pressure folks have gotten has been up the middle from what I’ve seen of them.
• Bottom Line:  I think it was probably a little telling this week when Clint Moseley said he felt like they could tire us out a little.  I think Malzahn probably knows it’s going to be really tough sledding going straight at the teeth of our defense with their OL against the beef we can stack up front.  I expect you’ll see a lot of jet sweep stuff with McCalebb while showing Dyer up the middle.  Dyer is a stout RB and we’ll be keying on him as he’s their best weapon but I think they’ll want to get us moving side to side as much as possible because they’ve struggled to move the ball against strong fronts.  They aren’t a great passing team but the more effective their running game is, the more dangerous they get through the air.  While Moseley has played well since coming on, LSU got to him early and often, sacking him 6 times, so I’m not sure how adept he is at handling pressure and I feel confident he’s going to be seeing lots from UGA.  Auburn getting positive yardage on 1^st and 2^nd down is going to be vital for them as much of their offensive gameplan is built on the run/pass threat and when they have to go strictly passing, the fact that they don’t really have personnel ideally suited for that becomes more apparent.
• Key matchup to watch when they have the ball:  I can’t wait to see Ogletree and our other ILBs versus Dyer.  Dyer is as dynamic a runner as there is in the conference and something tells me that if Ogletree had been healthy all year, he’d be his defensive equivalent.  He’s just now getting back in the groove on defense so I can’t wait to see how he does against a premier back.

AU Defense

• The 2010 AU defense wasn’t nearly of the caliber of recent top notch SEC championship defenses, but they didn’t have to be because Cam Newton was that good.  That group lost a lot of talent, particularly along the DL and in the secondary, and it shows.  This ain’t the typical AU defense, as they’re 84^th in rush defense and 50^th in pass defense, 10^th and 11^th in the conference in those categories respectively.  They’re also 11^th in scoring defense.  They’ve given up 34 points 5 times this season (although to their credit, only twice in the last 6 games and both of those were to teams in the top 10, LSU and Arkansas).
• Gone are a pair of beefy senior starters inside, Nick Fairley in particular, who had perhaps the most infamous game against UGA since Reynoch Thompson cheap-shotted Michael Greer in Athens way back when.  The 4 listed starters along the DL for the Tigers are all sophomores, hammering home the fact that this is a young group.  In fact, on the entire DL 2-deep there isn’t an upperclassman listed.  These guys are young and learning.  They bowed up to Lattimore and SC though in easily their best defensive performance of the year. DE Corey Lemonier is having an All-SEC type season with 6.5 sacks.
• Where the Tiger DL is young, the Tiger LB unit is small.  None of their listed starters cracks 6’ tall and none weighs in at even 230 pounds.  That’s safety sized.  In fact, RLB Daren Bates is a converted safety but has yet to bulk up, coming in at 5-11, 205.  As expected they’re a quick bunch but Figgins at 270 rumbling ahead of our RBs might very well kill one of them.
• The Auburn secondary boasts 4 of the team’s top 5 tacklers, which means either the guys up front are struggling to make plays or the DBs are getting passed on.  It appears to be a mixture of both.  Neiko Thorpe has settled in at FS after playing solid CB on last year’s team.  This group has pretty good size but has struggled to contain pure speed at the WR spot as both Sammy Watkins of Clemson and Reuben Randle of LSU went over 100 yards and 2 TDs each.  Maybe Mitchell can return to be that guy for us, assuming his hamstring is 100%.
• Bottom Line:  Auburn’s defense is hard to figure.  They started out absolutely horrible, I mean beyond bad, averaging giving up over 35 ppg after 3 games and giving up at least 34 in each (including Utah State).  Since then they’ve improved steadily with the notable exceptions being at Arkansas and at LSU.  The high spot was holding SC to a mere 13 points and a Brantley-less UF offense to just 2 FGs.  The fact is they’re still struggling in some regards.  They gave up 220 yards on the ground to Ole Miss (we gave up 34) in their most recent win.  Given their youth up front and their lack of heft at the LB spot, I’m tempted to just say run it right at them and make them stop us, but we haven’t had much success doing that all year really and SC certainly didn’t although our offense is considerably more balanced than SC’s (which was basically run, run, chunk it deep to Jeffrey).  Murray is on a bit of a roll and if he can play under control, he’s got the weapons developing around him to move the ball.  If he can manage to avoid the big, costly mistakes that marred the SC game, we should be OK.
• Key matchup to watch when we have the ball:  Isaiah Crowell versus himself.  I can’t remember a RB that was easier to read emotionally than Crowell.  He’s toned down the chatter a good bit since those first few games but when he’s amped, it’s really obvious and when he’s down, it’s even more obvious.  I know he’s a freshman and when I was 18 I wasn’t exactly “mature” or “super dependable” but he’s got to learn how to control his emotions and bring some solid effort on each and every play.  It’s odd.  Usually with guys who struggle with effort as freshmen it’s in things like pass pro but Crowell genuinely seems to enjoy that aspect of the game.  I’m just not sure how much he likes to get hit.  That means he’s sane I guess.  Turns out SEC defenses hit a lot harder than HS kids.  Whenever we get him back involved as a receiver out of the backfield he’s going to be deadly.

The AU Game Overall

This game is tough to figure.  While Auburn has certainly looked pretty bad at times, they’ve also managed to pull out wins more often than not, with their only losses this season being to Arkansas, LSU and Clemson, all top 10 teams, all on the road.  That’s a pretty strong list of losses.  You can’t label them as a team that doesn’t travel well either, as they beat SC in Columbia (although to be honest, SC’s 45 points in Athens is the aberration on their schedule, as they only put up 21 vs Vandy, 13 vs AU and 14 each to MSU and UT).  This is a group that needed a near miracle to beat Utah State.  You can however label them as a team that when they get beat, they really get beat.  Their 3 losses were by an average of more than 24 with a minimum (Clemson) of 2 TDs.

I honestly have no idea what to expect out of either team at this point. I’m not used to being this far into a season and honestly saying that about both teams.  For further proof, there is absolutely zero consistency in common opponent games.  We’ve shared 4 opponents (MSU, Ole Miss, UF and SC).  Their game with SC was extremely low scoring.  Ours wasn’t at all.  Our game with MSU was pretty low scoring, theirs was a shootout.  The UF game isn’t worth comparing because without Brantley apparently Charlie Weis reverts to Tecmo Bowl 4-play offense.  Ole Miss was pretty comparable with their game being a little more high-scoring but the differential being about the same.  Despite the fact that nearly half the games we’ve played to date have been against common opponents, I still can’t say with anything approaching certainty what to expect.

I rarely discuss Special Teams because even good special teams can have off days and vice versa, even moreso than the other aspects of the game but I will say it’s about time our special teams played up to their capabilities.

In the end, it’s Auburn.  As much as potentially playing for a spot in the SEC championship game means, beating Auburn just by itself is always huge.  Throw in how chippy that game got last year and it just gets that much bigger.  I’m thinking seniors like Ben Jones and Cordy Glenn who were on the field for the late hits probably take this one pretty personally and have had it circled on the calendar.  While most of the opposition has moved on, it doesn’t change the fact that it was Auburn and while they’ve played nice in the media, you have to know that a win Saturday will be that much sweeter.  If UF manages to right the ship and knock off SC then a win Saturday becomes legendary.

Positional Notes

• Sure Aaron Murray isn’t perfect, but with 23 TDs on the year, he’s only 2 away from tying the individual season record (Stafford with 25).  That’s with 3 games to play in the regular season plus a bowl game and potentially a SEC title game.  With 4 more TDs he’ll tie Stafford for career TDs in only 2 years.  The most impressive thing is he’s still developing and he’s got a promising group of skill players around him.  When he does head out of Athens, he’ll be sporting a ton of UGA records and quite possibly a few SEC ones as well.
• Speaking of the WR corps, Chris Conley’s emergence in the absence of Mitchell has been really amazing to watch.  He looks so smooth and appears to have really, really good hands.  That freshman 3-some of Conley, Mitchell and Bennett is going to be really fun to watch progress together because they all complement each other so well.
• As well as Ogletree is playing right now, I don’t envy having to decide who amongst Herrera, Gilliard and Robinson gets the nod at the other ILB spot.  Herrera seems to have started getting time at OLB in certain formations.  It’s hard to believe that with the graduation of Dent and Gamble and the transfer of Marcus Dowtin that ILB would be the strength that it’s become.
• Our CBs have really played well in recent weeks but we really need for them to make plays on the ball.  We’ve had a couple of glimpses but I want to see a few picks.  As well as this D is playing, you’d think our CBs would have more INTs.
• Yes, I know Brandon Harton looked great last week and he’s certainly earned our admiration and respect but in a game the magnitude of this one, I don’t think it’s fair to him to put him out there right out of the gate.  He fumbled his first carry last week.  Do you know the backlash Richt would get if he did the same this week?
• Speaking of Brando(e)ns, how about a big pat on the back to our starting CBs who both scored a TD out of the offensive backfield last week.  Mike Bobo gets a lot of flack and honestly gets a fair amount for lack of ingenuity but with his top 4 RBs out he managed to produce 14 points out of his CBs.  Not bad.

Random Thoughts

• I don’t typically pay much attention to the betting lines, but in looking at ours this week (a surprising 13), I was really stumped when I saw that Kansas State was a 5 pt underdog at home to Texas A&M.  I feel like this is preemptive SEC bias.  Kansas State just barely lost to Ok State on the road and TAMU just lost their starting RB for the season.  Weird.
• So Missouri rounds out the revamped SEC.  Good.  I had no interest in trying to figure out how the SEC office had screwed us with the 13-game schedule but I figure with the schedule we’ve had this year, I knew there was going to be backlash.  I fully expect to somehow play at Bama, LSU, TAMU (on a Thursday) and Arkansas (on the Saturday immediately following that Thursday) in consecutive weeks next year going into Jacksonville or some such foolishness.
• I can’t wrap my head around the Penn State mess but I feel comfortable saying that no matter what his involvement, JoePa’s legacy just changed monumentally.
• That LSU-Bama game actually lived up to exactly what I expected.  2 superior defenses and 2 pedestrian offenses that made the superior defenses look that much more superior.  Bama’s weak out of conference scheduling this season is going to hurt them though.  Yeah, they travelled to Penn State, but after them the next best OOC foe they have might be Georgia Southern.  After the famous Punt, Bama, Punt game, I wonder if this one will go down as Kick, Bama, Kick?  I suppose Kick, Bama, Kick, Kick, Kick is more appropriate.
• That LSU-Arkansas game is sure going to be interesting to watch.  LSU’s offense leaves a lot to be desired and I’m pretty sure that Arkansas showed they can score in bunches against a pretty good defense in SC.  I fully expect LSU to win, but it wouldn’t floor me to see Arkansas pull it out.
• Of the last 7 times we’ve faced Auburn where both teams were ranked, we’re a mere 2-5 going all the way back to that miserable 1997 game where we came off a drubbing of UF to get demolished at home.  We did win the last matchup we were both ranked though…the Blackout game of 2007.  Man that was a glorious night.
• Is it just me or did this season go by really, really fast?  We’re already ¾ of the way through it.  I guess that tends to happen when you do your best to pretend the first two weeks didn’t happen.
• Oklahoma State has 31 forced turnovers on the season.  31.  Through 9 games.  Unreal.

As always,

Have a safe weekend,

Jody

Viewfrom336.com

Alright, we finally started the process of removing that massive monkey from our backs that is the GA-FL game.  The fact that we spotted them a 2 TD lead and looked to continue going all “whatever it we do down there” just made it all that much sweeter.  The fact that we just went out there and did it without needing any field rushing antics or other motivation made it even more real.  We were just the better team, which hasn’t meant we win that game in recent years, but our defense simply stood tall all day and shut down an admittedly bad Florida offense even with their top QB returning.  That was one of the best defensive performances we’ve put together in a while.

As for this week, New Mexico State is a strong passing team, at least versus the schedule they’ve played.  Their toughest opponent to date is Nevada, who is a mere 5-3 this year.  Look for them to spread it around a good bit.  They have a mobile QB too but they don’t run with great success and rank near the bottom of the country in sacks allowed too so look for Jarvis Jones, Cornelius Washington and the other OLBs to have a big day, assuming Jones plays.

Defensively, they are horrible against the run (111th in the nation) and middling against the pass (65th nationally).  That works nicely given that we’ll struggle massively to run the ball considering our top 4 are out as you may have heard.  With Brandon Harton and freshman walk-on Kyle Karempelis likely to get the bulk of the carries I think we’ll see some other stuff like Figgins and Zander in the backfield at the same time only to pass block or who knows what.  I’m intrigued at the prospect of this making Bobo think out of the box a little and show some different looks that Auburn, UK and GT will have to at least think about.  I doubt it happens as that’s far easier said than done, but I can hope.  The timing of this game is ideal though as we can use it to allow Murray to get back on track.  Again, we’ll see.  They’ve struggled to get after the QB this year with any consistency, so maybe we can get in a rhythm throwing the ball and just drop the hammer on them.

Sorry, hard for me to get up big for New Mexico State.  We should roll.  They’ve lost to Ohio, UTEP, and San Jose State among others.  The fact our entire running back group is out will certainly make it more interesting, but ultimately it should be a snoozer.  It’ll be one of those feel good days where the fans can celebrate the team.  Hopefully we can manage to get the special teams back on track.  For reals.

Couple of things in closing…

• No, Blair Walsh’s struggles didn’t mean Richt’s going for it on 4th down won the game for us.  If Walsh wasn’t struggling, he makes the earlier 2 FGs plus the two where we scored TDs and assuming everything else plays out the same way we win by 2 instead of 4.  Which was the line.  Maybe Walsh had money on us?
• I had this conversation with a buddy right after the game.  I think Charlie Weis’ obesity might have lost them the game.  All year he’s sat down on the bench for much of the game and looked miserable.  This week he went to the booth for the first time all year, presumably because he could call a better game.  I think it was because he got tired of all the standing and sitting.  Anyway, UF struggled mightily with clock management and I’m thinking a lot of that had to do with the fact that Weis was in a new spot and there was a delay getting the plays in.  Just my 2 cents.
• OK, Verne has slipped a little.  He’s not nearly as sharp as he normally is.  I know he’s no spring chicken, but he missed a lot more than he typically does.
• This season is so, so weird.  I can’t imagine being this far into a season and still not really having any kind of firm feel for our offensive team.  Seriously.  I have no idea week to week what to expect.  If it ever all gels we’re going to completely destroy someone.
• Lastly, I’m going to be really, really disappointed if the pre-game video (which has become increasingly stale by the way) doesn’t include Murray’s late pass to Conley, Samuel’s TD run, Samuel’s clinching run, Herrera’s near safety and at least two Brantley sacks.  Yes, I realize that would probably constitute the entire video but I’m totally cool with that.  Also, how can they never have the Michael Johnson TD against AU to clinch in 2002 in there?  That play was arguably the biggest play of the entire Richt era (P-44 Haynes might be the only real competition).

but given today’s game, felt it was appropriate…

U2 with Munson